Indian economy showing renewed buoyancy: PHD Chamber
The Indian economy is showing renewed buoyancy despite the prevailing, though toned down, external sector headwinds amid current geo-political realities, said Mr. Pradeep Multani, President, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
Out of the 10 lead economic and business indicators of QET (Quick Economic Trends), tracked by the industry body PHDCCI, 8 have shown an increase for the month of July 2022 as compared with 6 out of 10 indicators showing the uptrend in June 2022, said Mr Pradeep Multani.
GST Collections, E-way Bill, Railway Freight, Passenger Vehicle Sales, Exports, unemployment rate, stock market and CPI inflation have registered improvement in July 2022, said Mr. Pradeep Multani.
GST collections registered y-o-y growth of around 28% in July 2022, increasing from Rs 1,16,393 crore in July 2021 to Rs 1,48,995 crore in July 2022. E-way Bills have shown y-o-y growth of around 18%, in July 2022, increasing from 64.2 million in July 2021 to 75.6 million in July 2022. Exports registered a positive growth of more than 2.1% in July 2022, increasing from US$ 35.5 billion in July 2021 to US$ 36.3 billion in July 2022.
Railway freight registered y-o-y growth of 8.3% from 112.8 Million Tonnes in July 2021 to 122.1 Million Tonnes in July 2022. Passenger vehicle sales registered a y-o-y increase of 10%, increasing from 2,64,442 units in July 2021 to 2,93,865 units in July 2022.
CPI inflation declined to 6.7% in July 2022 against 7.01% in June 2022. Employment scenario improved as the unemployment rate declined to 6.8% in July 2022 from 7.8% in June 2022. The SENSEX (monthly average) registered a sequential increase of 2.3% in July 2022 from 53478 in June 2022 to 54685 in July 2022.
On the other hand, the forex reserves registered a negative sequential growth of (-)3.3% in July 2022, decreasing from US$ 593.3 billion in June 2022 to US$ 573.8 billion in July 2022. The exchange rate depreciated by 2% from an average of 78.03 INR/USD in June 2022 to 79.55 INR/USD in July 2022.
| Chart 1: Economy out of 10 based on PHDCCI Quick Economic Trends | Chart 2: Economic and Business indicators’ growth rates: July 2022 (in %) |
Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI
Note: *Growth calculations of indicators such as exchange rate, unemployment, and CPI Inflation are adjusted such that the decrease in the said indicators depicts improvement and vice-versa; figures are rounded off; growth for GST Collections, E way bill, Railway Freight, Passenger Vehicle Sales and Exports is calculated on year on year (y-o-y) basis; growth for Unemployment Rate, Forex Reserves, Exchange Rate, Stock Market is calculated on sequential basis.
10 economic and business indicators of QET include demand and supply indicators along with external and financial sectors indicators, said Mr. Pradeep Multani.
PHDCCI Quick Economic Trends: Growth Performance of Economic & Business activity so far
| S. No. | Economic and Business Indicators | May-22 | Growth | Jun-22 | Growth | Jul-22 | Growth | ||||
| Indicators with Y-o-Y Growth | |||||||||||
| 1 | GST Collection (in Rs crore) | 140885 | 44.0% | ↑ | 144616 | 55.8% | ↑ | 148995 | 28.0% | ↑ | |
| 2 | E way bill (in Millions) | 73.6 | 84.1% | ↑ | 74.5 | 36.2% | ↑ | 75.57 | 17.8% | ↑ | |
| 3 | Railway Freight (MT) | 131.7 | 14.6% | ↑ | 125.5 | 11.6% | ↑ | 122.1 | 8.3% | ↑ | |
| 4 | Passenger Vehicle Sales (units) | 251052 | 185.1% | ↑ | 275788 | 19.1% | ↑ | 293865 | 10.0% | ↑ | |
| 5 | Exports (US$ Billion) | 38.94 | 20.6% | ↑ | 40.1 | 23.5% | ↑ | 36.3 | 2.1% | ↑ | |
| Indicators with Sequential growth (M-o-M) | |||||||||||
| 6 | Unemployment Rate (in %) (Sign Changed)* | 7.12 | 9.1% | ↑ | 7.8 | -9.6% | ↓ | 6.8 | 12.8% | ↑ | |
| 7 | Forex Reserves (in US$ Billion) | 601.4 | 0.6% | ↑ | 593.3 | -1.3% | ↓ | 573.8 | -3.3% | ↓ | |
| 8 | Exchange Rate (INR/USD) (Sign changed)* | 77.29 | -1.4% | ↓ | 78.0 | -1.0% | ↓ | 79.5 | -2.0% | ↓ | |
| 9 | Stock Market (SENSEX monthly average) | 54437 | -6.4% | ↓ | 53478 | -1.8% | ↓ | 54685 | 2.3% | ↑ | |
| 10 | CPI Inflation (in %)* | 7.04 | ↑ | 7.01 | ↑ | 6.71 | ↑ | ||||
| Overall Score | 8/10 | 6/10 | 8/10 | ||||||||
Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI
Note: *Growth calculations of indicators such as exchange rate, unemployment, and CPI Inflation are adjusted such that the decrease in the said indicators depicts improvement and vice-versa; figures are rounded off; growth for GST Collections, E way bill, Railway Freight, Passenger Vehicle Sales and Exports is calculated on year on year (y-o-y) basis; growth for Unemployment Rate, Forex Reserves, Exchange Rate, Stock Market is calculated on a sequential basis.
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