IDTechEx Discusses the Pivotal Year Ahead for Quantum Computers

IDTechEx have released a brand new report, “Quantum Computing 2023-2043”. This report covers the hardware that promises a revolutionary approach to solving the world’s unmet challenges. Quantum computing is pitched as enabling exponentially faster drug discovery, battery chemistry development, multi-variable logistics, vehicle autonomy, accurate asset pricing, and much more. Drawing on extensive primary and secondary research, including interviews with companies and attendance at multiple conferences, this report provides an in-depth evaluation of the competing quantum computing technologies to building a quantum computer: superconducting, silicon-spin, photonic, trapped-ion, neutral-atom, topological, diamond-defect and annealing.

These competing quantum computing technologies are compared by key benchmarks, including qubit number, coherence time and fidelity. The scalability of whole computer systems is appraised – incorporating hardware needs for qubits initialization, manipulation, and readout. This results in a twenty-year market forecast covering 2023-2043. The total addressable market for quantum computer use is converted to hardware sales over time, accounting for advancing capabilities and the cloud access business model. The entire hardware market is currently valued at US$700M, forecast to grow to US$12.1B by 2043. This growth will be driven by early adopters in pharmaceutical, chemical, aerospace, and finance institutions, leading to increased installation of quantum computers into colocation data centers and private networks alike. Revenue and volume forecasts are split into eight forecast lines for each methodology covered. Historic data on the number of quantum computer start-ups utilizing each methodology, and the qubit milestones achieved, are also included.

Key Questions Answered in This Report Include:

• What is quantum computing and what is the state of the industry?
• How is quantum computing benchmarked? What is the current and future status of the key players and competing quantum computing technologies?
• How can the commercial potential of quantum computer hardware be assessed? 
• What are the different methods of designing a quantum computer, how do they work, and what are the opportunities and challenges for both qubits and readout systems?
• What are the underlying platforms and infrastructure needs of quantum computers, such as cooling systems and thermal management?
• What are the prospects for revenue generation from quantum computer hardware?
• How will the market evolve both short, medium, and long term – and when are inflection points for commercial value and on-premises ownership anticipated?

A Pivotal Year for Quantum Computers Ahead

In the last decade, the number of companies actively developing quantum computer hardware has quadrupled. In 2022 multiple funding rounds surpassing US$100 million have been closed, and the transition from lab-based toys to commercial product has begun. Competition is building not only between different companies but between quantum computing technologies.

Whilst all systems depend on the use of qubits – the quantum equivalent to classical bits – the architectures available to create them vary substantially. Many are now familiar with IBM and their superconducting qubits – housed inside large cryostats and cooled to temperatures colder than deep space. Indeed, in 2022 superconducting quantum computers with over 400 qubits were unveiled – made accessible via the cloud for companies to trial out their problems. However, many agree that the highest-value problems – such as drug discovery – need many more qubits, perhaps millions more. As such, alternatives to the superconducting design, many proposing more inherent scalability, have received investment. There are now more than eight technology approaches meaningfully competing to reach the million-qubit milestone.

With so many competing quantum computing technologies across a fragmented landscape, determining which approaches are likely to dominate is essential in identifying opportunities within this exciting industry. Furthermore, as the initial hype around quantum computing begins to cool, investors will increasingly demand demonstration of practical benefits, such as quantum supremacy for commercially relevant algorithms. As such, hardware developers need to show not only the quality and quantity of qubits but the entire initialization, manipulation, and readout systems. Improving manufacturing scalability and reducing cooling requirements are also important, which will create opportunities for methodology-agnostic providers of infrastructure such as speciality materials and cooling systems. By evaluating both the sector and competing quantum computing technologies, this report provides insight into the opportunities provided by this potentially transformative technology.

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